After the elections, Taiwan will have a choice about it’s future. In 22 March Taiwanese voters need to decide DPP(Democratic Progressive Party) rule with independence debates and anti PRC policies or KMT(Chinese Nationalist Party)rule cooperation with PRC(People Republic of China). After 8 years of DPP rule, now it is time for a new chance to rule Taiwan for another 4 years. Two parties are eagerly looking for this chance to be the new leader of Taiwan. After 8 years of Chen Shui-bian period DPP side is looking for to win the presidential right to rule another 4 years. They don’t want to surrender even they were defeated in the legislative elections in January 12 of this year. The other side KMT wants to open a new page for Taiwan especially new and stronger relations with Mainland China. KMT trusts its victory in the Legislator elections. In this election DPP has succeeded to get just 27 seats. The KMT has reached a big victory after 8 years and succeeded to get 81 seats. After the elections DPP has got24% of the seats in Legislative Yuan(House). However they could not stop KMT to get the 71 % of the seats, 3% of the seats are belong to Non-Partisan Solidarity Union[1]legislators and 1 %of the seats are belong to independent legislators[2].This results[3] are the signals of a big change in Taiwan’s voters profile. After 8 years of DPP rule it seems that voters want to give next chance to KMT and open a new Period in Taiwan’s Future. However after the defeat in legislative elections, DPP side wants to convince more voters to gain their support in the presidential elections in March 22. DPP is making more plans to take the presidency and continue it’s rule. Otherwise DPP needs to wait next elections. After the defeat in the first elections, DPP side is looking for new solutions to gain voter’s heart. KMT side is working to continue their success and wants to rule Taiwan another 4 years under KMT leadership. KMT considers next 4 years are going to be the key for Taiwan’s future. Especially economic demands from voters force them to solve Taiwan’s economic struggles and bring Taiwan back the success during 90’s. After 22 March the new president of Taiwan and legislators will start to work harder than ever to bring prosperity back to Taiwan. The electors are looking for stable Economy, Cross Strait Relations, National Defence Diplomacy, Education and Welfare issues. These are going to be the main topics of next president and Legislators. Taiwanese people does not want to loose time for their future. They are looking for solutions to their problems and want brighter future for Taiwan.

 In this research, we are going to analyse the coming presidential elections of Taiwan and the new path of Taiwan’s people. It seems that people do not want to waste any other 4 years to make anti-PRC policies and want to give a chance to KMT to establish better relations and more cooperation with PRC. Most of the people think that China’s enormous development could help Chinese people in Taiwan and Taiwan’s Economy.

Before the presidential elections maybe the most important issue about Taiwan is Economy. People in Taiwan are looking for stable economic development and stronger Economy. When you talk with the people most of them are complaining about Taiwan’s economic improvement. Even Taiwan has made economic growth (2004 %6.15, 2005 %4.07,2006 %4.68)[5]in recent years, however Taiwanese people think that new government has to focus on Economy more. One of the biggest complain about Economy is rising prices and stable wages in Taiwan. Even though indicators gives positive signs yet when we compare with other countries (esp. South Korea)[6] Taiwan has lost its position. Especially in the same region Taiwan’s Economy has weakened against to South Korea in last 3 years. In Taiwan, the people are so close to other country’s development in Asia. Maybe more than the results in the indicators they are looking the Taiwan’s competitiveness among the other countries. Taiwanese people think that one of the important Business rival of Taiwan is South Korea. When we compare the South Korean indicators, it is so clear to see that South Korea has made more achievement than Taiwan in last 3 years.[7] 

Under the DPP administration, Taiwan’s economic growth from 2001 through last year average 3,7%. Last year foreign trade rose 9,2%. over 2006 to reach US$470.billion registering record high for export. Imports and trade surplus with the latter rising 28% over the 2006 level to reach US$27.38 billion. Accordingly, World Bank assessment released last year, Taiwan ranked 19th in the world in terms of knowledge-based economic competitiveness second in Asia only to Japan which ranked 17th. However salaries have remained stagnant in Taiwan since 1990’s while prices for necessities such as food and fuel have climbed per capita income.[10] This charts force parties find new solutions about Economy. Before the elections both of the parties have prepared many economic programs for coming 4 years. Even the Cross Strait Affairs are in the second place for voters. Thousands of Businessman want to increase their sales. From the other side workers are looking for higher salaries. After 8 years of DPP rule most of the people seems not satisfied. Before 22 March DPP candidate Frank Xie and DPP side stated “considering the international division of labor, Taiwan should aggressively implement policies to promote the island’s role as a regional operations center for high-tech manufacturing, and continue its efforts to gain membership in international trade organizations. To further internationalize Taiwan's economy, the government should improve infrastructure shortcomings by liberalizing the financial and banking service sectors and streamlining bureaucratic processes. Taiwan should promote environmentally-sound industrial policies. The DPP believes Taiwan should commit to meeting the environmental agreements passed at the Kyoto Summit. The government should actively promote new industries and provide economic incentives to private firms which promote energy conservation and avoid high-emission pollutants. Taiwan must consider economic growth in the context of sustainable development. The DPP advocates cooperation and coordination between the central government and local governments in regional planning and industrial development. Other general consensus includes the government's impact and important role education and training, and responsibility to continually modernize and improve infrastructure.[11]” DPP side is looking to keep away PRC as possible as they can. They have tight obligations against to PRC investment in Taiwan or improving Tourism between two sides of Taiwan Strait. DPP side is looking forward to gain an international identity and bring Taiwan back to UN under the name of Taiwan. DPP side does not want to give up establishing independent country against to PRC. DPP wants to have clear national positioning, stable connection of the two states across the Strait, strong national defense force and stable economic development.[12] It seems that if DPP candidate wins the elections cross strait relations will tension will not decrease. However DPP has experienced that statements like President Chen can not bring any advantage to Taiwan. That’s why DPP side does not mention any positive or negative comments about President Chen, they are just looking forward to win the elections in 22 March. DPP’s slogan for elections is “happy economy, happy people” Frank Xie says “The premier goal of our policies are to make people happy. At the same time, I want to upgrade Taiwan’s industrial sectors and technologies to promote economic development and stimulate employment, thus making people happier.[13]” DPP is open to talks with PRC but their blueprints about identity of Taiwan have no chance to have warm welcome from PRC side. DPP needs to find a way to negotiate with PRC. With the unacceptable statements and requests Cross Strait problem may continue many more years. Even people do not want to have close relations with PRC. Indicators show that PRC is the biggest trade partner of Taiwan. People are going to Mainland China in their holidays and the stars from Taiwan have a huge support there. Taiwan seems against to PRC especially in foreign media but if you get inside you see people and country make money with them. There is such kind of atmosphere in the economic charts and this situation is bringing the people more closer to PRC even some people do not want any contact with them but it seems with out contact means no trade and no improvement in economy. Now there is a chance for KMT to lead Taiwan another 4 years and KMT side plans to open the doors against to Mainland and its investors. DPP side strongly criticize KMT’s this plan and blame them “Sell out the country[14].” Candidate Xie adds "Ma's encouraging of Chinese investment on Taiwan could raise real estate prices to a level unaffordable to most young Taiwanese. It will only drive up unemployment and lead to lower salaries[15]" KMT refuses all that blames. KMT side emphasizes that common market will stir up the Economy. Candidate Ma Ying-jiu says “Cross-Strait common market would not be a “one-China” market but rather a move to develop Taiwan as a center of Taiwanese and Asia-Pacific commerce[16]” KMT’s another big Project is 12 construction projects[17] as the cure for Taiwan's economic ills, saying they would help create 120,000 new jobs and NT$4 trillion in production value. In the polls KMT candidate Ma seems more close to win the elections. But the difference between two candidates not so deep. Last week maybe some undecided voters can effect the final results of election. According to our observation even one week before elections especially some of young voters have not decided. The key voters are undecided people of Taiwan. After two television debates between Ma and Xie some voters still wait the last minute to decide. However second television debate between two candidates, viewers thought that Ma is much capable than Xie. The poll showed that nine out of every ten viewers who called to pass judgment voted for the KMT standard bearer. Close to 40,000 voters made the calls. Only fewer than 3,000 said his DPP adversary won.[18] Of course, that's not a good yardstick to measure How the two candidates could appeal to the voters, who would go to the polls on March 22 to elect a new president to succeed an increasingly unpopular Chen Shui-bian. A TV debate is commonly seen as a very poor straw poll, as all candidates do is to perform to the best of their ability to ingratiate themselves to would-be voters. In particular, Ma and Xie were asked 20 big policy questions. Each was required to respond for 90 seconds, however viewers also recognized it would take a man of supernatural ability to make his policy absolutely clear in such a brief period of time. Critics said the debate was designed to give the two candidates center stage to show off, however they acknowledged Ma "showed his stuff off much better than Xie." "He looked younger, more vigorous, and much more sincere, not to mention he is much more good-looking than Xie. Appearance appeals to young voters," one critic said.[19] Winning the debate, however, doesn't necessarily mean Ma will be elected. It is hard to say that who will win the elections before 22 March. As we make a guess about the poll than we can say that before 22 March indicators and our observations let we think more positive about Ma. However till the last minute we keep watching last steps of both parties. It seems small scale elections but when we get in the depths of elections we can say that results of elections will effect Pacific tensions between Mainland China and Taiwan. Maybe in the long term it may cause the first integration steps. This would take maybe many years but as we can see people are looking more positive to future in Taiwan Strait. The first elections was the first reaction against to DPP policies. Now Frank Xie and his partners try to change the destiny of their party in a couple of days. This is the biggest challenge of last years in DPP History.

Maybe the presidential election of Taiwan in 22 March will be the top 10 important international affairs in year of 2008. Because the result of this election can affect the peace of East Asia and even the world peace. Before the result comes out, US and China were deeply concern outcomes of this election. They concern not only who will win the presidential election but also another two referenda those are taking place with presidential election spontaneously. To what extent, maybe they concern the outcomes of those referenda more than they concern who is elected. Because those outcomes of referenda can be interpreted as the will of Taiwanese people about their future. Especially the proposal raised by DPP, if this proposal is passed by a majority then DPP can promote Taiwan Independent Movement more aggressively. Even the proposal raised by KMT is passed with a majority, DPP can interpret it as they want also. That is on a surmise that both proposals all propose that Taiwan need their seat in UN. The sole difference between the two proposals is that with what official name of Taiwan to joint UN. So any proposal passed by Taiwanese that could be interpreted as Taiwanese will seek their sovereign independent and that will offend China and US obviously. This circumstance may lead disorder even critical danger in East Asia. Therefore, China and US will stare at the outcomes of those referenda with highly cautious[20].

We can conclude above analysis into two categories. The first category is that if Mr. Ma, the candidate who is nominated by KMT, wins the presidential office. Basically, the relation across Taiwan Strait will have more space to make improvement. That is because of Mr. Ma's moderate China policy. But in this category, we can divide it into four sectors. One, both referendums proposal are succeed. Second, both referendums proposal are fail. Third, KMT's proposal success and DPP's fail. Forth, DPP's proposal success and KMT's fail. In these four different conditions, the first and fourth are more difficult than the other two. However, just as we mentioned earlier that as long as Mr. Ma wins presidential office the basic situation can be controlled. So even the first or the forth condition is happened, the whole situation can be still controlled. The second category is that if Mr. Xie, the candidate who is nominated by DPP, wins the presidential office then the situation will more difficult and complicate than the situation we just mention earlier. In this case, we can still divide it into four different conditions for our analysis. First, both referendum proposals are success. Second, both proposals are fail. Third, the proposal raised by KMT is success and DPP's is fail. Forth, the proposal raised by DPP is success and the KMT's is fail.  These four conditions except the second will cause great tension. Especially, if the president elected or the incumbent president interprets these condition into the will of Taiwanese people to seek independence. It will produce very much tension on this area. Of course, we do not indicate that if Mr. Xie wins the election and his party's referendum proposal is success then Mr. Xie or his predecessor, Chen Shui-bian, will declare Taiwan independence officially or other move with the same meaning. Our intention is to indicate that because of DPP's or Mr. Xie's anti-China policy it can produce a difficult environment for the new leader and this area. However, this does not mean Mr. Xie or his party will maneuver this condition into a crisis in this area. So, if Mr. Xie can constrain his victory over the presidential office and their referendum proposal then the situation can be controlled too. If he does not, the crisis will occur very likely.

In sum, the coming presidential election and two referendum proposals about Taiwan's future will catch a lot of observer's eyes in the coming.

Mr. Prof. Dr. Paul Zhao-xiang Qu                                                                                               Mr. Ugur Rıfat Karlova

·     Mr. Prof. Dr. Paul Zhao-xiang Quis the Dean of Political Science Department in National Taiwan Normal University.