Zhamanak:Mr. Ogan, after more than a year of intensive negotiations welcomed Armenia and Turkey have announced a potentially ground-breaking agreement to normalize their historically strained relations in the coming months. How would you evaluate the agreement to start “internal political consultations” on bilateral protocols on the establishment of diplomatic relations and reopening of the borders?
Sinan OĞAN: First of all, it has to be mentioned the protocols that are signed between Turkey and Armenia with the mediatorship of Switzerland have two sides, one is the visible side and the other side is not visible to others. The visible side is the one which is written in the protocols. But the non-visible side is that the realization of these protocols by Turkey depends on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Although it is not written in the protocols, without any development in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the protocols have no chance to be realized and put into force.
Zhamanak:It was obvious that the April 23 Statement has been made in order to prevent US President Barak Obama from recognizing or mentioning the 1915 events as Genocide: Don’t you think that the bilateral protocols and “the Road map” dated August 31, have a sole purpose - to have Serzh Sargsyan in Turkey on October 14 soccer game?
Sinan OĞAN: As you have mentioned already “the roadmap” that is declared on 22th April was done so as to provide a basis for the speech of US President Barack Obama on 24th of April. These protocols also seem to be signed to provide the opportunity for Armenian President Serj Sarkisyan to come to Turkey for the national football match between Turkey and Armenia. But, I think that these protocols have deeper meanings than attending an ordinary football match. Since this time The West expects something more than a football match. This time they think that the peace can be accomplished.
Zhamanak:How would you describe the future relations of Baku and Ankara after the published bilateral protocols?
Sinan OĞAN: This time the relationship between Baku and Ankara seems calmer. After the sign of the previous roadmap, there has been a slight crisis between Turkey and Armenia. But this time it can be said that Baku is more sure footed. The reason of its sure-footedness is the promise of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in his speech at Baku in May in which he mentioned that without any development in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Turkish-Armenian border cannot be opened. This time there is a prudent waiting between Ankara and Baku.
Zhamanak:We have heard a lot of times from Turkish and Azerbaijani politicians that Armenia-Turkish relations and Nagorno Karabakh conflict resolution are combined and there will be no Armenia-Turkish relations if Nagorno Karabalh conflict is not settled. In published protocols Karabakh is not mentioned at all. Do you think that Armenian-Turkish relations can be established and the border between the both countries will be opened without any move forward in Karabakh settlement process? Is there a chance of conducting conspiracy negotiations to include in Armenia-Turkey negotiations process“Karabakh conflict resolution road map”?
Sinan OĞAN: For now the reason for the absence of Nagorno-Karabakh issue in the protocols is only a technical necessity. Since it is a two sided protocol and the self interests of the third side, Baku are not reflected. But it is a mistake to think that the process will continue as it is written in the protocols. It is not possible for the protocols to be ratified in the Turkish Parliament without any development in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Zhamanak:How would you evaluate the chances of passing the protocols in Turkish parliament?
Sinan OĞAN: The possibility of these protocols to be ratified by TGNA directly depends on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. If there are any developments in that conflict, it can be ratified. Otherwise, it will wait in the assembly and has not chance to be ratified.
Zhamanak:What do you think, from the regional players such as US, Russia or EU, who played the most important role in this process?
Sinan OĞAN: There are the influences of US, EU and Russia in this process. Certainly the most effective power in this process is US. But it is known that Russia does not also look negatively to this process. Russia’s attitude towards Turkish Armenian relationship has changed especially after the war between Russia and Georgia last year in August. Now Russia looks positively to this initiative. Moreover, one of the most important reasons behind this initiative is the Nabucco Project. The West wants Nabucco Project crossed by Armenia. Russia also does not want these kind of pipeline projects to be passed by Georgia. Thus, in this situation, the strategic importance of Georgia gain more importance and The West supports Georgia.